Defining Skepticism

Before I begin sharing my daily readings, I want to describe my personal world view, so that you might understand the filter through which I'll be interpreting the Tarot.

I am a skeptic. Not in the usual sense of the word, meaning one who doubts, but as in the original Greek meaning "one who inquires." To put it most simply, a skeptic is someone who asks questions. Most often, the term is applied in the context of supernatural or pseudoscientific claims. In these cases, we may specify a particular brand of skepticism, known as "scientific skepticism," or "rational skepticism."

A scientific skeptic generally adheres to the following principles, not out of devotion to a subjective philosophy, but because these principles are axiomatic (i.e. self-evident):

• The burden of proof lies on the person making a positive claim. In other words, my being unable to disprove something is not evidence of its existence.
• Logical fallacies used to support a claim do not meet sufficient standards of proof. On the flip side, the existence of a logical fallacy does not in itself disprove a claim. Basically, fallacies are useless as evidence for or against a claim.
• The scientific method is the best means we have for learning about the nature of reality, because it requires validation and is self-correcting.
• The most reasonable assumption when evaluating a claim is to withold belief until evidence proves otherwise. 
• The strength of evidence must be in proportion to the incredibleness of a claim. As Carl Sagan put it, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." For example, if I told you my kids go to school just down the street, you have little reason to demand more evidence before accepting the claim. But if I said they go to school at Hogwart's, the claim becomes more unrealistic, and therefore you would be reasonable to demand some strong evidence before accepting it.

There are some additional principles that are useful in evaluating the truth of a claim, which we have learned through science:

• Human memory is not only subjective, but very malleable. Memories are highly unreliable.
• Confirmation bias is difficult to avoid, even by a very rational person. We have an innate tendency to recall evidence that supports what we wish to believe, and discard or forget that which does not.
• Statistics and probability elude our inherited thinking processes. Nonintuitive things happen when data sets grow larger, and we tend to overvalue results drawn from small data sets. For example, it seems near impossible that you specifically would win the lottery twice, but not so impossible that it would happen to one person out of all who play the lottery.
• Cognitive dissonance, combined with social reinforcement, allows irrational ideas to thrive, even as society becomes more scientifically savvy.

Finally, some personal conclusions I have drawn:

• There is a difference between what one wishes to believe and what one has reason to believe.
• Concepts like "belief" and "faith," which seem to be considered virtuous by the general population, have no value or effectiveness when dealing with reality.

The above statements must be taken into account when reading my interpretations of the Tarot. Next, I will take a broad look at the Tarot: its history, its design, and its use.